『Merchants of Doubt』要約

In Merchants of Doubt, Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway trace how a small network of Cold War-era scientists—most prominently physicist Frederick Seitz, former Atomic Energy Commission official William Nierenberg, and missile-defense advocate Fred Singer—became the intellectual engine of contrarian science in the United States. Their central framework is the deliberate manufacture of doubt: rather than disproving scientific consensus, these figures sowed uncertainty sufficient to delay regulation, invoking the tobacco industry's playbook of insisting that the evidence was inconclusive. The authors follow this tactic across a series of case studies, including tobacco smoke, acid rain, the ozone hole, secondhand smoke, global warming, and the deflation of the 1980s "nuclear winter" findings. A recurring theme is that the same individuals appear in debate after debate, often funded by industry or conservative foundations, while invoking free-market ideology and fears of government intrusion as their stated motive. The book draws heavily on archival documents, congressional testimony, and internal memos—including the famous Brown & Williamson tobacco memo—to demonstrate that doubt was produced knowingly, not stumbled into. The structure often reads as parallel biography, showing how figures such as Seitz moved from legitimate defense physics into a long second career contesting environmental and public-health science. Oreskes and Conway argue that this campaign did not refute the underlying science but instead created the impression of a live controversy where none existed, weakening the link between scientific evidence and democratic policy. Widely reviewed as an influence on later climate-communication research, the book is a work of history and media analysis rather than an experiment or a how-to guide.